Expectation | Words for Change

You might be surprised to learn that surprise is the only human emotion that requires interpretation.

Surprise signals an error message in the brain. The unexpected is flagged, a deviation from expected patterns predicted from past experiences. Your neurocircuitry is poised to act before the moment is lost. You have milliseconds to assess if the unexpected event signals danger or possibility.

Looking out, leaning forward

Expectation comes from the Latin expectare: ‘to look out’.

It combines ex- meaning ‘out’ and spectare meaning ‘to look’; ‘to watch’, ‘to await’.

Expectation is a forward-leaning cognitive state. It encapsulates anticipation, tension and a belief about how things will turn out.

The weight of expectations

We draw on embodied spatial and temporal knowledge in the metaphors we use to describe expectations:

“I’m on the edge of my seat.”

“I’m waiting with bated breath.”

“The clock is ticking.”

“There’s a window of opportunity.”

Expectation is also profoundly visual. We routinely convey the visual aspect of expectation through our choice of words:

We “foresee” an outcome.

We share and become invested in “the vision”.

We ask, “do you see what I mean?” to check on shared understanding and say “I can see your point of view” as a mark of co-operation.

When our expectations are met, we might say, “see, I was right”, and when they are not, “hmm, I didn’t see that coming”.

Are you seeing what I’m seeing?

Expectations change our neurochemistry. We lean so far into our expectations that they literally change what it is we expect to see or hear. The more you anticipate something, the more neural circuits become connected and activated in service of that expectation.

Pattern shapes prediction and prediction shapes perception.

Popular visual and audio illusions demonstrate this phenomenon. Take the famous case of “the dress”, which can be perceived as blue/black or white/gold depending on what your brain expects to see. Likewise, the recorded words in a child’s toy that can be perceived as “green needle” or “brain storm” depending on priming activation.

These examples remind us that our perception of reality is more subjective than objective. Perception is shaped by myriad factors operating beneath and beyond our conscious awareness and attention. Is it any wonder that different people come to different conclusions about the same sets of data?

Moving along

The metaphors of expectation provide an interesting insight into the relationship between expectation, dopamine, motivation and movement.

When our expectations are met, the absence of an error signal lets our pattern-matching predictive brains know we are on track, keep going.

When our expectations are positively exceeded, we experience a surge of dopamine. Motivation lifts, we chase the feeling.

But when our expectations are not met or outcomes are worse than expected, dopamine is suppressed and can dip below baseline levels. Motivation (the internal drive to act) and movement (the related physical action) falter with the drop in dopamine as the brain interprets the meaning of the error signal.

Hitting a brick wall

We’ve all felt the demotivation of a dopamine dip when things don’t go as expected. We express an unconscious awareness of this relationship in the metaphors we use to describe our dashed expectations:

“It stopped me in my tracks.”

“It knocked the wind out of my sails.”

“I had the rug pulled out from under me.”

“The wheels came off.”

As tough as it feels, the dopamine dip helps us learn through experience. It weakens neural connections associated with unexpected negative outcomes, just as the dopamine lift strengthens neural connections associated with unexpected positive outcomes.

The writing is on the wall

When faced with novel or ambiguous data that don’t meet expectations, our brains take one of two main pathways to reconcile the cognitive tension.

We can respond to the error signal by ‘changing our minds’ and updating our mental models and expectations about how the world works. If the adjustments are modest, adaptive learning occurs. If the update is significant, such as in eureka moments of insight, then transformational learning occurs in our pattern matching-predictive brains. Old beliefs are ‘forgotten’ as new neural networks form in a dopamine enabled spike of neuroplasticity.

A second path is to sense the error signal but respond in maladaptive ways; by either ignoring the new information or altering our perception of it so it “fits” existing mental models, worldviews and expectations. Learning, in the true sense of the word, does not occur. Predictions and perceptions go unchallenged, and at worst, become entrenched. In this scenario, we dig in deeper on our point of view making it less likely our minds will change at a later stage.

Changing expectations – some tips for changemakers

How can we work with the neurobiology and language of expectation to leverage positive outcomes?

Work with the visual nature of expectation. Help people see the change you seek to make through descriptive narratives. Activate their imagination. Engage them in “the vision”. Show them what you mean in solutions-based images that illustrate your point of view.
Remember, expectation is a forward-leaning state. We are moving forwards, not backwards, matching the only possible trajectory of the complex adaptive systems in which we live. Reinforce this trajectory by saying what you are for in your communications, rather than what you are against.
Anything is possible in the moment before change. Speak from inevitability, use “when” instead of “if” to heighten people’s perception towards the change you describe. This creates a sense of momentum, change is happening (instead of change might happen). Engage and activate the neural networks of expectation.
Accept that change is hard. Remember people who seem stubborn and unwilling to see your point of view are just as invested in their perceptions and expectations as you are in yours. Change challenges the status quo. It can trigger a threat response, and brains in fight, flight or freeze mode are closed to new ideas. Approach with compassion and curiosity knowing it’s difficult to shift hardwired beliefs and expectations, especially in an ongoing context of uncertainty.
Facts need frames. Facts, data and information - on their own - will not change hearts, minds and actions. Help people see your point of view by presenting your information through a values-based frame. Care, connection and curiosity frames shift perspectives by activating pattern and prediction networks aligned with these values. This orientates people into a ‘greater good’ mindset through which they will perceive and reason about the information that follows.

Wise words

“Not all surprises produce belief changes, but all belief changes probably were triggered by surprise.” Michael Roussell

Go Deeper

Bubic, A., von Cramon, D. Y., Jacobsen, T., Schröger, E., & Schubotz, R. I. (2009). Violation of expectation: Neural correlates reflect bases of prediction. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 21(1), 155-168.

Eagleman, D. (2020). Livewired: The inside story of the ever-changing brain. Canongate Books.

Gegenfurtner, K. R., Bloj, M., & Toscani, M. (2015). The many colours of 'the dress'. Current Biology, 25(13), R543-R544.

Glimcher, P. W. (2011). Understanding dopamine and reinforcement learning: The dopamine reward prediction error hypothesis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(Supplement 3), 15647-15654.

Guzman, M. (2022). I never thought of it that way: How to have fearlessly curious conversations in dangerously divided times. Penguin Random House.

Humphries, M. (2017, March 14). The crimes against dopamine. For they be many and grievous. The Spike Newsletter.

Rousell, M. (2021). The power of surprise: How your brain secretly changes your beliefs. Rowman & Littlefield.

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